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Irish Paddy



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Posted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 19:46 pm

The long thread below about Equinome has raised some very intersting questions. Gone West has suggested an excellent idea to start a new thread with direct questions and I am wondering if someone with access to Dr Hill might be able to obtain some answers. I propose to start with the following question:
    From the list of mares categorised by blood-test - say per one hundred - how many were categorised in CC, CT, and TT ?
    Reply
    • Irish Paddy»Mon Mar 14, 2011 16:49 pm
      Is there a list available of all stallions that have been categorised? Reply
    • Dawn Run»Tue Mar 15, 2011 14:49 pm
      No. The only stallion to date with a published category is Intense Focus who stands at Ballylinch. He is a CC. All test results are confidential so only the owner of the horse can release the information. This confidentiality is confirmed by the fact that when submitting a sample the owner is not required to give the horses name - the sample can simply be numbered. Reply
    • Green Man»Tue Mar 15, 2011 19:38 pm
      INTENSE FOCUS is owned by Equinome co-owner Jim Bolger so nothing strange there. Why are the other stallions at Ballylinch not disclosing their category (if known and if not known or tested, then why not?). It is a shame this simple blood-test is being ignored by stallion owners. Reply
    • TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:43 am
      Just as an aside and a bit of self promotion (why not?) using methods I have developed myself for clients based on statistical evidence of known perfomance and detailed analysis of pedigrees, I would have placed Intense Focus in a group likely to produce sharp early 2yo winners up to stakes class, providing the mare (classified by a similar process) was capable of producing a fast early 2 year old. Reply
    • Gone West»Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:02 am
      I would like to know how the 3 classification results are already proven? It is one thing to indicate classification but surely those results would need perhaps ten years (six foals from a mare) before being qualified results? Ofcourse I am not a scientist so scientifically the results may well be guaranteed but I would like to know how this was done in so few years? Reply
    • Dawn Run»Tue Mar 15, 2011 15:08 pm
      No you don't need all that time. The theory and science of genetics is proven. The human genome has been completed several years ago and the horse genome follows the same science. The human genome is being used in the selection of sportsmen by professional clubs in several sports codes. If your genetic profile does not match the requirements as determined by the club, then you don't get hired. The Equinome test is doing the same sort of job. In really simplistic terms what you're asking is akin to seeking proof that men can't have babies. I began the original thread because statements were being made about genetics etc that were just not true. Genetics is a science, it takes learning. I don't feel it is good enough for us breeders to say genetics is too complicated, I don't understand the science so I'll ignore it and won't try to learn it or accept an authoritative source of information. The 3 classifications have been determined by examining the gene profile of hundreds of thoroughbreds from major training yards and breeding farms. The 'so few years' you mention were actually nearly 8. This wasn't determined over night. Test samples came from Ireland, UK, USA, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa so it's not a local phenomenon. An essential component was the cooperation of some leading world class trainers who gave samples of Classic and Group winners. The numbers of the samples used (in the hundreds) greatly exceed the demands of statistical mathematics. Reply
    • Green Man»Tue Mar 15, 2011 19:43 pm
      Very interesting. So this classification is just a start? The next step is to determine the genes that are found in the super athletic champions and perhaps insignificant in the poor achievers, is that right? I suppose it is called progress but if the scientists are successful we can say goodbye to the attraction of breeding. Reply
    • Enzed»Tue Mar 15, 2011 20:23 pm
      Exactly my thought, Green Man - exclusivity - because probably only the wealthy owners/breeders and those that haven't lost their undies in the current recession can afford to toss the dice and gamble / gambol on Equinome. like Dolly The Sheep, we will end up with Neddie The Horse..... progress ? Reply
    • Enzed»Wed Mar 16, 2011 16:05 pm
      Dawn Run , if the human genome is "being used for selection of sportsmen by professional clubs" - if your profile doesn't stack up, you're not in the hunt !1 - I find that pretty incredible........... but it probably dovetails with the widespread use of STEROIDS in professional athletes worldwide (esp in CYCLING). http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/other-sports/4777978/Criminals-control-large-part-of-world-sport-Wada There must be some sort of correlation with people's desperate seeking of the magic genetic wand in equine industry - a so called elixir of life. Reply
    • Dawn Run»Tue Mar 15, 2011 15:12 pm
      I will try to find an answer to that but off the top of my head a random worldwide sample of horses would comply with a bellcurve result. The Equinome test was largely done on Group horses so the curve would probably be skewed towards middle distance horses ie CT. A random sample would give 25%CC, 50 %CT, 25%TT. Racing programmes are skewed towards to speed end. Reply
    • Irish Paddy»Tue Mar 15, 2011 19:17 pm
      All great answers. Thanks a lot. Reply
    • TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:24 am
      Firstly let us be very clear, the research and the science behind the Equinome business is first class. In fact quite remarkable and everyone involved should be heartily congratulated. Dawn Run your enthusiasm for the science is wholly and fully understood. I find the science difficult but I am continuing to try to understand it. This process may take many years just as the process of analysing and trying to understand pedigrees has done. These are complex things and I just don?t have the intellect to instantly pick up this type of information. I will not however give up on it. What is quite wrong however is to rubbish everything that went before the ?new? science. What were we supposed to do before the sequencing of the gene was completed. We worked with what we had as best we could. Now it may be that Dawn Run was mislead or given bad advice based on pedigree research and analysis but in my experience most people who have set up a business which in some way uses the evidence of past performance based on pedigree analysis, affinity matching or whatever, are working in good faith, trying to help their clients breed better horses. Its all very well to say that the new science supplements this knowledge but it sure as hell does not in any way replace it. Nor do I think that the so called new science has been any more ethically marketed than the older practices which never pretended to be ?scientific?. For example Equinome sell their ?product? as THE SPEED GENE, it is nothing of the sort. It does not classify according to comparative speed but to the optimum distance a horse may be likely to perform at. Now this may be useful in itself but the information is of limited importance. Furthermore the distribution of the classifications CC, CT and TT are likely to be of major importance and we have no clarification yet from anyone involved just how the population is made up. I doubt very much that it is 25% 50% and 25% as indicated by Dawn Run but have no data to back up my assertion. I would imagine and I may be way off line, that it is likely to be <10% CC and <10% TT with the rest in the CT group. Now that leaves the vast majority of horses in that no where land of CT which means that they can produce CC horses, CT horses and TT horses dependent on the stallion used. Well this is of limited use to breeders with horses in this group and that may be 80% of the population. Of course what it does mean is that the value of the test is much greater if you have a CC or a TT, or it would be if all the stallions were classified. And the cost of the test if you have a CC mare would be well worth the money. What the identification of the mare will do especially if you have TT mare is (apart from probably rendering it worthless except as a NH mare) is save you training cost as a 2yo as Dawn Run has already said. But I have mares who have never bred 2yo and I just don?t send them in early anyway so the cost would be wasted on these mares. I also have clients who have mares who have won over 5 furlongs and never produced winners over distances greater than 6 furlongs so I guess we don?t need to get them tested. The old science is good enough for them! I know what Dawn Run means when he says 25% of horses will never win a stakes at 2yo but it is misleading (and the 25% has still to be confirmed) I would say that 99.something% are never going to win stakes at 2yo but that is another story. So we can identify the potential 2yo that may win over 5 or 6 furlongs but it may be slow as hell and if it is does anyone think that the trainer will not try it over 7 or 8, Of course as an owner you will have the perfect response to your jockey who after giving your horse a very ordinary ride comes in to the unsaddling and says it needs further. Reply
    • Valerie»Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:53 am
      Bravo! Brilliant analysis. What you say makes absolute sense. Yes there is a big place for Equinome and they are another spoke in a very big wheel- at this stage, nothing more nothing less. Reply
    • Enzed»Wed Mar 16, 2011 16:18 pm
      I'm rather interested in categorising of STALLIONS at the moment, TOTH........ one in particular >. Oasis Dream......... by the speed line of GREEN DESERT, but as far as the damline is concerned, HOPE (by Dancing Brave) has a long run of damsires one would term CLASSIC types before one comes across (in about the 8th line) Panorama as a sire of SPEED......... Oasis Dream was a fast sprinter who naturally it could be guessed MAY be designated CC by genome test (and his progeny are fast sprinters too as a whole?) but his damline screams classic........... and it has kicked in with MIDDAY (damsire Kingmambo and from your favourite Mofida clan ) to prove it........ so under the genome test, it might be that he could come up as CT.......... I'm not sure what I'm trying to say, but throwing up a bone for some people to gnaw on Wink Reply
    • TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:36 am
      I would like to know how the intellectual property rights are being distributed bearing in mind that some possibly all the funding came from the government and the university. The commercialisation of these proprietry rights might prove very valuable in these fiscally challenging times. Reply
    • Dawn Run»Mon Mar 21, 2011 15:30 pm
      The University has a shareholding in Equinome. Government development grants are frequently given without strings attached other than performance monitoring to ensure the funding is used for what it was given. I believe that 2 significant Irish studs will soon release their stallion Equinome ratings on request. It's for them to make the announcement. I feel it is time for me to close on this one for a while, but would just like to say that I did not intend to rubbish the old ways - I wanted to make sure that science was being looked at. You can take it or leave it. Perhaps we can revisit the subject in a few months. Reply
    • TOPOFTHEHILL»Mon Mar 21, 2011 15:45 pm
      Thanks Dawn Run, it is only fair tha the funding should be repaid (in part at least) I am trying to read and understand the papers but god knows its hard going. I would appreciate some guidance on the classes in the population seems to me that most horses will be CT and I'm sure the answer is in the literature if only I could understand it. Give me a year or two and I might begin to understand. Reply
    • Irish Paddy»Mon Mar 21, 2011 16:12 pm
      By coincidence I asked a certain Stud today what their stallion was. I suspected - and they confimed to me - he was blood-tested. I got the answer they would find out later today and notify me. The mare is for possible cover tomorrow. Reply
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