RACING FORUM

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2024 14:17 pm**

Well RP you were right about G1 races varying from year to year, and of course we all knew that was the case. I have been working on a way to demonstrate that even so the quality has declined as the number of G1 races has increased resulting in too many G1 opportunities. Well I eventually hit on a very simple method but it is very tiresome and starting with the 2000 Gns I looked at the last 10 years I had planned to go back 20 years and think that is probably a more valid time scale. Unfortunately I discovered a bit of a problem. If you aggregate the OR's of the first 4 in the race and use the BHA's definitions which I personally think is setting the bar very low you find a very interesting thing.
Its hardly ever a high quality race in fact in 10 years it has only scraped over the BHA bar 3 times. This years was by no means the lowest, there were 2 lower but it was certainly nearer the bottom than the top. I now have to decide whether to plough on with the data or not. The quality for this race is definitely declining and twice in the last 5 years it it aggregated at less than 107, but I am convinced that there is a certain amount of manipulation going on. The BHA require a G1 race to be (aggregated) over 114, if it falls below that figure 4 years running it gets refered to some board for demotion to G2 status. Its very odd that if it has a run of 3 bad scores the next one will be over the 114. I can confidently predict that next years 2000 gns will be one of the better ones.