Racegoer
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Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2023 20:39 pm |
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BOLSHOI BALLET(GALILEO)
DEAUVILLE LEGEND(SEA THE STARS)
HAMISH(MOTIVATOR)
HUKUM(SEA THE STARS)
LUXEMBOURG(CAMELOT)
POINT LONSDALE(AUSTRALIA)
PYLEDRIVER(HARBOUR WATCH)
WESTOVER(FRANKEL)
EMILY UPJOHN(SEA THE STARS)
AUGUSTE RODIN(DEEP IMPACT)
KING OF STEEL(WOOTTEN BASSETT)
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- English Gent»Fri Jul 28, 2023 20:54 pm
Looks like a great race. Great field. A true test for A.RODIN to prove he is a Champion. Reply
- Squid»Sat Jul 29, 2023 16:03 pm
Something wrong with AR and he is not champion material. Reply
- TOPOFTHEHILL»Sun Jul 30, 2023 8:05 am
What a strange race. It was billed as a vintage renewal, well I am certainly doubting that. Although we didn't learn that much there are plenty of things to ponder. The winner has always been a smart horse. He obviously has his problems and has been difficult to get right so all credit to his trainer and the owners for keeping the faith. I rated the second as a 3yo and I thought Dettori gave him a terrible ride in last years Derby but its difficult to say he absolutely top grade. Something was clearly wrong with AR but he is looking unreliable at best. The 3year olds were meant to be a top class crop, thats very much in doubt now, especially over 12 furlongs. I think the French have the best of them at the moment. This is a race that favours the 3yo as the WFA advantage kicks in from July on to give them a slight edge. Nearly all of the best performances I have seen this year have been put up by Shadwell runners. They don't have a stand out like Baaheed but they do have a nice group. Its a great credit to them but I don't recall a top 2yo from them this season. Its going to take me a few days to work this race out. Reply
- TOPOFTHEHILL»Sun Jul 30, 2023 8:13 am
FOOTNOTE: I backed Emily Upjohn on the basis that her form along with a sex allowance gave her an outstanding chance. It was a difficult call for me as she has Barathea close up in her pedigree. I always thought he was soft horse or probably a dodgy character and he is always one that sends out a big warning when I see him in a pedigree. She ran no sort of race, so I think I am going to listen more to my innate prejudice in future. Reply
- amadán»Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:47 am
A few thoughts on why Auguste Rodin was beaten 126 3/4 lengths. ............................ (1) In 2018 before Saxon Warrior ran in the 2018 English Derby I doubted the stamina contribution of his sire Deep Impact. At the time the sire's average winning distance was 10.1f (now 10.5f). "I looked at the 10.1 AWD in the Racing Post for Deep Impact, and broke it into the individual wins that made up the 10.1f. It was only 8 wins in the 10.1f AWD calculation, 5 of those were in maidens, 2 in low level handicaps, and 1 in a Group 1. Not happy with the very poor quality of the winners I decided to do something else. I took hundreds of the best Deep Impact progeny and did an AWD calculation with those. The result was a 9.39f AWD for Deep Impact progeny.". I know people often point out the "stamina" of Japanese runners, often winning at 1m 7f or longer. Japanese tracks are pancake flat (one track only varies by one foot in elevation); are very large ovals with wide turns, and the large fields allow runners to slipstream and save energy, coming with a late showboating run from the back of the field. [The Paris-Tours cycle race of 250 kms is always won by a sprinter]. ........................... (2) I also think Deep Impact progeny do best on firm(er) ground, although a few (incl Auguste Rodin) have won on heavy. The English Derby win was on good/firm, but probably they should have said firm. There are only 92 runs by his progeny on the Racing Post website so difficult to see trends for Deep Impact progeny. Japanese races are almost always on firm ground, although the ground is usually described as good. .................................... (3) The final doubt about Deep Impact progeny is their resolution, their willingness to battle. I believe they will win or come last. Look at the record of A Shin Hikari. He won the Prix d'Ispahan by 10l, then was 6th of 6 in his next race. He had a record of 1,1,1,1,1,9,1,1,1,9,1,1,6,12,10. ................................... A final comment about "statistics". I see the Racing Post website shows only the top ten rated runners for Deep Impact (or any sire) under each category (presumably in GB; IRE; FR). It shows Study Of Man with 0 wins from 1 run on turf, earnings GBP 22,124. But if you look at the detailed racing record of Study Of Man it is 3 wins from 11 runs, earnings GBP 1,033,142. ............................. If you look at broodmare sires with Deep Impact the RP stats there are also unreliable. Deep Impact with Encosta De Lago as broodmare sire shows 0 wins from 10 runs, but if you look at the detail of the two runners, Navadir and Zafeer it is 1 win from 13 runs. ......................... The RP data / statistics are not reliable. ............................ A final, final thought. I no longer bet, but I would be very interested in betting on Auguste Rodin in his next race if (1) it is on good/firm (2) it is at 10f (3) the odds are high based on his poor performance in his last race. Reply
- Mr Jones»Wed Aug 02, 2023 7:50 am
I like your busy reply Amadan and you make interesting points. However, in the KG+QE11 I dont think it was an issue that A.R didn't stay the 12 furlongs. To my eye, he was like a horse who didn't want to run from a long way out. He wouldn't have won that day if the race was 11f, or 10f, or 9f, or 8fur, or 7f...would he? Reply
- amadán»Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:39 am
Auguste Rodin may have preferred 12f against a weak 3yo field. Perhaps he realised he was up against serious horses. ........................ I had a look for explanations and found post-race "He was a little bit stiff and a little bit sore, but other than that he seemed fine." and "Aidan O'Brien is now wondering whether the Derby hero has an aversion to flying." ....................... I am not convinced about the quality of Japanese stallions, runners, and "the best horses in the world" mantra. It looks like Japan are in a stagnant situation: (1990) 589 stallions; 7691 foals. (2022) 253 stallions, 7732 foals. In 1990 they imported 24 stallions, in 2022 they imported 3 stallions. That is not much different to other areas. The USA horse population has halved in about the same period. Reply
- TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:54 am
I have pretty good data from Japan but lets face it Japanese racing is NOT open and its competitiveness is and always has been open to question. Apart from all the points that Amadan has made most of which are reasonable at the very least the data I have suggests that Deep Impacts progeny win at the top level, more over 10 furlongs than they do over 12. Although these were as Amadan says serious horses, I don't think the race was anything like as deep as the media suggested. Westover has been handed a rating of 128 which I think is on the high side although he may be improving. It would be difficult to suggest that 5 and 6 year old horses are going to improve by such margins so for the time being I am taking the ratings with a huge pinch of salt. My feelings are that the 3year olds are not exceptional and the older horses are good but again not much better than average. Reply
- Red Light»Sun Jul 30, 2023 19:53 pm
It looks like jockey Jim Crowley will be handed a stiff suspension for overuse of the whip. Reply
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