IRISH BLOODSTOCK FORUMS :: View topic - Night of Thunder

TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed Oct 12, 2022 15:25 pm
They can most certainly be wrong and a lot of them will be, I refer to my post a few days ago if you want a top class Night of Thunder then his fillies are doing a better job than his colts by almost 3 to 1. What are they buying at the biggest prices? Reply

Irish Paddy»Wed Oct 12, 2022 20:46 pm
A rough calculation I reckon 11 fillies averaged approx 130,909 whereas 17 colts averaged approx 176,647. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:33 am
Paddy the bloodstock business confounds me on a fairly regular basis. Forget for now the filly to colt ratio but Night of Thunder is getting less than 5% Black type winners to runners, thats less than a lot of horses who will be judged inferior. New Bay for one and believe it or not that stud failure Muharrar is a lot better with black type winners at nearly 7%. What price one of his, you probably couldn't give one away. Now look at the colt and filly thing NIght of Thunder colts are probably hovering between 1 and 2% BTW to runners. All the information is available quickly and for free. The average of 176.6K looks very slim value to me maybe I am wrong. Every year I go to the sales and come back wondering if I know anything at all or if what ever it is I do has any value. What I do know is that 4 of my matings went through Book 1 and 2 all made over 3 times the published nomination fee, all made the vendors money. And I am not actually advising specifically for the sales more for a racing career. It wholly anecdotal but I have seen that when a mare is matched to a stallion with a lot of affinity (performance affinity that is) they always look a little bit better. Reply

Serendipity»Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:05 am
Looking at this a different way his current juveniles of 28 runners in GB & Ire include 2 stakes winners which is better than his total percentages and he has a big flagship name this year. There is a perception that he is a sire on the up along with his recent fee increases which drives the prices. To me it is a minor miracle that any of his progeny are correct and good-looking, but they obviously are! Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:45 am
Actually not that many are 100% but you would have to say that most of them were no where as bad as he was in front. I haven't had much to do with them in training but the ones that I have seen all need plenty of time and most of them have not been that quick. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:13 am
Of course you would really need to look at how many foals he has in his juvenile crop and my guess is that it would be more than 100 so his 2 stakes winners still represent (if that number were correct) less than 2%. Winners to runners is a well used guide but can be very unhelpful. Reply

Reference Point»Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:53 am
I don't know TOTH. My post initially was to comment on how well breeders have done with him this year (median is 7x advertised fee). I have never really been a fan of his but everybody seems to want them including top trainers and outfits like Coolmore. Don't get me wrong I'm sure there are plenty just jumping on the bandwagon, but there must be something about them that is creating such a demand. I'm sure most buyers can see his strike rate for stakes horses and if its not that great I think they would know that. His stock must have attributes to attract these buyers and don't forget his runners to date would have come from less accomplished mares. Anyway it will be interesting to follow them next year. Reply

Little Man»Thu Oct 13, 2022 21:11 pm
Do we know yet what his fee will be next year? Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:09 am
We know its going to be higher than last year with sales results like this. Its a sort of self fulfilling thing. Reply

Little Man»Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:33 am
a colt yesterday was sold for 1k..... Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:57 am
Purchased by the Stevie Wonder Bloodstock Agency Reply

Reference Point»Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:55 am
Tbh I thought Stevie was buying some of those fillies in Bk1 hence my question on the other post. I will probably be proven wrong next year when I am posting how good they are!! Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Fri Oct 14, 2022 14:19 pm
What you need to do RP in a couple of years time is to say that you always knew how good they were going to be even though everyone else was suggesting otherwise. A career in our present government awaits. Reply

Reference Point»Fri Oct 14, 2022 18:14 pm
Thats as long as they don't look back at all my daft posts on this forum! Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:28 am
While distancing myself from a judgement that your posts are in any way 'daft' it would appear to me from a position of non participation and observance, that if your posts were indeed as daft as you have suggested, your suitability for a job in the very heart of government is assured. If one were to, using racing parlance, and 'study the form' a position at the very top might seem within reach. Reply

Oreally»Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:56 am
Truss you Toph to think of that! Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:34 am
Ive been watching replays of Yes Minister. Reply