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Martin X



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Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 11:01 am

The Group 3 Ballysax Stakes (10fur) today at Leopardstown has nine runners. Aidan O'Brien -2 runners, Donnacha O'Brien 2 runners, Joseph O'Brien 2 runners. The other trainers with one each runner are Bolger, Weld and De Bromhead. I expect the three O'Brien trainers will be in serious opposition to each other and I expect Aidan to win with BLUEGRASS (by GALILEO) and must be a very possible Derby contender. Reply
  • Mr Jones»Sun Apr 03, 2022 20:27 pm
    Well BLUEGRASS is no Derby winner in my book. 5 1/2 lengths fourth. Donacha won the race by a short head from his brother Josephs runner. Reply
  • TOPOFTHEHILL»Tue Apr 05, 2022 13:26 pm
    I agree with you Mr J. his form now is 1 from 4 (an ordinary looking Maiden) and I tried to run his pedigree through a couple of data based pedigree analytical suites. His dam was unknown ( well she may not have been very good so I entered her myself, 2nd dam unknown, same thing and by Haafhd who was a really smart horse but a dire stallion. The next dam was by Orpen and also unknown to the database although I think she was a 2yo Chester stakes winner but did nothing after. Orpen is a funny horse in a pedigree he always seems to find something else to strike up a negative affinity with just another of those horses that sets the alarm bells ringing when you see him in a pedigree. Well I got bored entering all these unknown dams so I didn't bother to run the analysis and frankly what is the point. Reply
  • Reference Point»Tue Apr 05, 2022 16:36 pm
    What about Piz Badile TOTH? Not sure if he is quite good enough but a very interesting pedigree. I think we have discussed the family on the forum previously. Is the duplication of Lingerie called 'formula 1' pattern?? A similar pattern to Victor Ludorum who won a group 1 and of course Masar was inbred to Urban Sea (although not quite that pattern). Haafhd was a poor stallion but a friend of mine owned silver Grecian so I have a soft spot for him. Reply
  • TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:25 am
    Well RP he is certainly not good enough yet but may get better with time. Yes that is my understanding of the Formula 1 Pattern some nice horses bred on that type of inbreeding. Quiet American is one that I always think of. Its a very Niarchos pedigree and clearly one that was not just thrown together. On the down side I have not been too impressed with daughters of Northern Dancer although most of them you see in pedigrees were moderate. That's not the case with Northern Trick who was a dual G1 winner and top class runner. I have a very poor opinion of Woodman in a pedigree but that might just be personal bias. I have never done anything with a mare that had Woodman in her background but maybe they were just not very good mares. Its probably a good thing I am getting old because my personal list of names in a pedigree that don't work for me is getting very long. Reply
  • Valerie»Wed Apr 06, 2022 17:42 pm
    The PIZ BADILE pedigree fascinates me! Not only is he 3x3 to his third dam but the pedigree is flooded with NORTHERN DANCER and MR PROSPECTOR. This PIZ BADILE is certainly one I will watch with great interest. Reply
  • Reference Point»Wed Apr 06, 2022 18:09 pm
    Well as we are discussing the Derby, I was at Newcastle when Antarah won his maiden really well and the second in that maiden won easily at Pontefract yesterday. If he has done well over the winter he may well be a decent each way bet. He looks sure to stay and inbred to Urban Sea. Hopefully he will be out soon. Reply
  • TOPOFTHEHILL»Fri Apr 08, 2022 5:53 am
    RP Savvy is a horse I know a bit about, he is a nice horse in the making and he won well at Pontefract as you say. But he is a much better horse today than he was at Newcastle. He was being brought on slowly and was not ever going to make a 2yo but I think he has a few interesting entries for this season and may well run in the Derby too. Reply
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