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Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:48 am

There was an interesting article in the Racing Post about Mac Swiney and how his genetic profile is CT and that his dam was a TT. I have no feelings about that. But it seems to be slightly at odds with the statistical evidence available. I understand that the likelihood of Mac Swiney staying a strong 12 furlongs in a G1 race (The Derby) is based on his dam Halla Na Saoire being enough of a stamina influence to get a son of New Approach home. Well New Approach has got a Derby winner in Masar and a good runner at his best. And you could argue quite reasonably that Masarís dam looked a lot less likely to produce a 12 furlong horse than Halla Na Saoire. Her sire was Cape Cross but he has actually been responsible for 4 G1 winning 3yo over 12 furlongs, including 2 Derby winners now Australia and Masar. Halla Na Saoire is by Teofilo. As a broodmare sire he has not produced a G1 winning 3yo at any distance over a mile and only 1 G2 winner and 1 older listed winner. The statistics suggest that he is not really an influence for stamina. Itís a job to understand why he wouldnít be looking back through his pedigree there is plenty of stamina but as usual there is that mix of speed and stamina and it looks more like speed has won the argument. Or is the argument still going on? Reply
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