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        BREEDING FORUM >> Pedigree Matters No4 Dawn Approach and the Derby
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TOPOFTHEHILL



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Posted: Fri May 31, 2013 6:57 am

Before any analysis and speculation lets put the record firmly straight, Dawn Approach has shown better form than any 3 year old colt this season. He was clearly among the very best 2 year olds of 2012 and he might well have proved the best 2 year old too. He is trained by a trainer that knows how to get the Epsom job done. He is already a G1 winner and already a Classic winner. His sire and grand sire both won the Derby. His dam might have been ordinary, and she is by a sire that you would not automatically see as being in the distaff make up of a Derby winner. He has however been the broodmare sire of 4 other G1 winners.

There is in my opinion only one thing that we don’t know about Dawn Approach, Will he stay the one and a half miles trip, and even if he does not, is there another horse in the field with enough class to beat him over a trip that might be a step too far for him.

I am struggling a bit with this but one thing I strongly believe in is that the Derby is run over a stiff one and a half miles. I am unconvinced that a ten furlong horse can win the Derby. (Unless the field is exceptionally weak and contains no genuine 12 furlong horses).

I also find any argument that because a horse is relaxed his style of running will see him through even if he does not stay. It just never happens! They either stay or they don’t.

I use for evidence a list of highly fancied also rans that will have been described as 10 furlong horses have class or a relaxed attitude to racing.

The nature of the course places very severe demands on the runners and it is important that a rider needs to hold a position if he is to maximise his chances. Rarely is the race run at a false pace and no one can ignore the early steep climb away from the start which takes a lot of energy out of the runners.

It is almost impossible to sit in behind early without loosing position. To do this you would need to have supreme confidence in the horses ability to stay the trip and even then to come from a long way back in the short straight is very difficult even for a very high class horse, (Dancing Brave).

It is often suggested that the Irish Derby is more of a test of stamina but I believe this to be false. Times suggest that Epsom is the stiffer test and there have been winners at the Curragh who have fallen short at Epsom.

So will he or won’t he?

On balance I don’t think he will stay. I have looked at all the stakes winners with Phone Trick as broodmare sire. One has won beyond 10 furlongs a G3 winner at 11 furlongs. He had a single G1 winner at 10 furlongs but Exogenious was better known for his winning at shorter distances. The best runner other than Dawn Approach with Phone Trick as broodmare sire did his winning over 6 and 7 furlongs, on dirt.

New Approach (his sire) did get 12 furlongs but it is early to say that he might be enough of an influence for stamina to overcome any short comings on the damside. The dams of most Derby winners have more class than Hymn of the Dawn and most have shown or suggested more stamina.

Tarfah was a stakes winner over 9 furlongs, Gwynn the dam of Pour Moi was perhaps more like Hymn of the Dawn, but she was more the exception than the rule. Workforce’s dam was a staying champion, Urban Sea, dam of Sea The Stars and Galileo was an Arc winner,New Approach’s dam although by Ahonoora was a staying stakes winning champion, Funsie was related to stakes winners and producers.

I am convinced that Dawn Approach is vulnerable to a genuine stayer with class but what I still need to convince myself is simple, do any of the other runners have that combination of stamina and class to beat Dawn Approach.

The usual trials were all a bit muddling and the horse that I liked most has got only modest support from the media. I thought the run of Ruler Of The World was excellent at Chester. It was only his second run, and that came only a few weeks after his Maiden. Chester is not a great place for an inexperienced runner to shine so all in all I think his win was highly creditable. We know he stays the extended 12 furlongs well and although if he goes to Epsom he will still be very inexperienced the Derby can be won with a lightly raced horse.

He is unlikely to be the Ballydoyle first choice so that could work out well for him as long as they do not ask him to cut out the pace for another runner.
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