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TOPOFTHEHILL



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Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2013 18:40 pm

Pedigree Matters No 1

There appears to be some confusion about what constitutes a good cross and what it is that suggests a particular cross is less than satisfactory. I will try to explain what I mean.

We were invited to look at the possibility of a cross involving Storm Cat in both the sire and the dam.

Of course just how Storm Cat comes into the hypothetical pedigree of the foal is very important but more of that later.

In its most simple form the analysis of this cross is a simple comparison of the rate of success between Sires with Storm Cat mated with mares from the general population and Sires with Storm Cat when crossed with mares who also have Storm Cat in their pedigree.

If the cross is to be successful we should find relatively more elite runners (stakes winners), from the group with mares who carry Storm Cat.

There are 1643 stakes winners with Storm Cat in their sires pedigrees only 0.49% have Storm Cat in the dam side of their pedigrees.

There are 381 stakes winners with Storm Cat in the dam side of their pedigree and 2.1% of these have Storm Cat in the sire side of their pedigree.

In total there are 8 stakes winners with Storm Cat on both sides of their pedigrees. One is a G1 winner (in Brazil) there is One G3 winner from the USA and the rest are listed winners.

If we look at this group of stakes winners we can see that almost half of them have Northern Dancer in the dam side of the pedigree and the top son of Northern Dancer is Nijinsky who features in about 15% of all the stakes winners pedigrees.

The really big scorers are Raise A Native and Mr Prospector who feature in 45% and 35% respectively.

So this is the initial and I have to admit very crude analysis of the cross, and its so conclusive that it really doesn’t need refining but we can apply through an application we have an adjusted score taking into consideration opportunity.
It concludes that against opportunity a Storm Cat x Storm Cat cross has a 0.25% chance of producing a stakes winner against a mean of 1 that is just a quarter of pure opportunity and that is why we call it a low% play.

Just as a comparison the Storm Cat x Nijinsky cross hasproduced 241 stakes winners (35 at G1) and you will recognize many of the names.

Johannesburg, Footstepsinthesand, Lope de Vega, Scat Daddy, Special Duty are just a few examples.

If we run the analysis we find that the cross has just short of a one and a half times pure opportunity of producing a stakes winner. This is a very positive result perhaps not enough to be described as a high % play but really positive nonetheless.
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