BREEDING FORUM

Posted: **Sun Sep 11, 2022 13:13 pm**

Previously I analysed inbreeding in six generations (Jan/Feb 2017), and in 2020 revised it to correct small errors and expanded it to analyse ten generations. It is difficult to summarise the results from a ten generation pedigree analysis into one number. Over the last few weeks I analysed a few horses to 15 generations (65,535 ancestors). Moving back to ten generations I extracted one number, and analysed 27 horses, 16 top horses and 11 horses rated under 50 (picked at random). ..................................................... Here are the results in descending pedigree "merit" order. ......... name (dob) rating [pedigree] ;
Danehill (1986) --- [19.0%]; Rainbow Quest (1981) --- [18.7%]; Nureyev (1977) --- [18.4%]; Ribot (1952) --- [17.8%]; Darshaan (1981) --- [15.8%]; Cease The Moment (2000) 40 [15.7%]; Sadler's Wells (1981) --- [15.5%]; Galileo (1998) --- [14.7%]; Frankel (2008) --- [14.4%]; Treve (2010) --- [13.7%]; Sea-Bird (1962) --- [13.7%]; Winx (2011) --- [13.5%]; Kalico Kim (2004) 37 [13.2%]; Goldikova (2005) --- [12.7%]; Onefortheroad (2006) 33 [12.7%]; Northern Dancer (1961) --- [12.5%]; Sun Yellow (2007) 39 [12.4%]; Majestic Bounty (2009) 45 [12.1%]; Flightline (2018) --- [12.0%]; Resusatation (2003) 42 [11.8%]; Deckhand (2004) 44 [11.7%]; Baaeed (2018) --- [11.6%]; Enable (2014) --- [11.3%]; Gambrinus (2011) 40 [11.2%]; Bunacurry (2005) 49 [10.9%]; Cannons Hall (2009) 13 [10.2%]; A B May (2000) 34 [9.3%]
........................................... 2 of the 11 lowly running rated horses were rated on pedigree in the top half of the 27 pedigree ratings; 9 of 11 of the lowly running rated horses were rated on pedigree in the bottom half of the 27. ................................ I can see why these two poor runners rated in the top half failed. Their pedigrees in the first six generations had negatives which cancelled the positives in the 7th to 10th generations. A further analysis of the first six generations of each pedigree might help. ...................... I notice Northern Dancer; Flightline; Baaeed; Enable are lowly rated. Did they win the genetic lottery with average pedigrees? More analysis of a bigger sample, thousands of horses, might help answer that. ................... This analysis only uses the names in a pedigree, without knowing anything about those names (wins; ratings; group races; good offspring). I could change the ancestor names to ffjlsop; wlxcsifdj; ijlilasje; qpdmdsjh and so on and the analysis would still work. The analysis uses the sex of the duplicated ancestor, the number of times that ancestor occurs; and the sex of the offspring in the pedigree of that ancestor.