IRISH BLOODSTOCK FORUMS :: View topic - 19 run in Nmkt 2000 Guineas Gr 1 -tomorrow

Irish Paddy»Fri May 03, 2019 21:30 pm
I will cheer on MADHMOON - he can go close. Reply

Valerie»Fri May 03, 2019 21:44 pm
I haven't made my mind up yet but I am down to three! TEN SOVEREIGNS, MADHMOON and ADVERTISE. I will select the winner when I see them on TV ! Reply

barney»Sat May 04, 2019 7:11 am
O'Briens horses seem in good form and I go for Ten Sovereigns. Reply

Little Man»Sat May 04, 2019 7:47 am
I agree with you Barney but I fancy the other one of his runners Magna Grecia who is ridden by O'Briens son Donnacha. Reply

Reference Point»Sat May 04, 2019 7:57 am
Wih trainers who can't get them there (Gosden, Darley) those that won't (Fabre), and those that gallop horses instead of racing them, is it any wonder AOB farms this race? Reply

Shine On»Sat May 04, 2019 22:47 pm
Spot on Barney but I think the winner was lucky with his draw, pace leader and stand-side of the track. He may well have won from any position but he did have good luck as a help today. I thought TEN SOVEREIGNS just didn't stay - I may be wrong but imo 7fur was his limit today. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Sun May 05, 2019 9:50 am
The draw was a huge advantage but why the jockeys in the other high stalls went to the centre is incomprehensible. If you walk the track its so obvious that the faster ground was along the stand rails. They have put a fair bit of water on the track and they water along the track (with a track wide boom) The prevailing wind (and it has been very breezy here) takes the water toward the centre and far side of the track. Every one knows, it has been the same for several years and its just stupid for jockeys to look for slower ground. On the same theme it is astonishing that without any warning they changed the track configuration in that the stalls were set in the middle and the cut away was not used this year. Placing the stalls in the middle actually increases the advantage of the higher drawn horses as the lower drawn ones have further to travel to find the better ground. Of course if you were drawn low you had to suffer. I think the winner is smart and may progress as a miler, he looked a bit big and should come on I hope they don't make the mistake of running him over a longer trip. Ten Sov's didn't quite stay and should IMO be dropped back to 6 Furlongs, you could argue that he only faded in the last half furlong and he might get an easier mile on the turn but I doubt he will ever stay that far again you can often get them to do it once. Reply

Reference Point»Sun May 05, 2019 22:01 pm
I dont think the bias was as much as made out. The winner was the best horse in the race and the 2nd was very good looking and I think will be decent. Agree TS didnt stay. 1000gns winner was best looking of AOBs and could well go on to be excellent. AOB has no peers. Reply

Green Man»Mon May 06, 2019 14:47 pm
I cannot understand how so many "experts" on TV are knocking the win of MAGNA GRECIA. In my opinion if he had been drawn on the far side he would have won just as authoritively as he did on the near side. He was the best horse in the race on the day. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Tue May 07, 2019 6:54 am
RP the bias has always been a significant factor at both tracks and they know it. That is why they tried the cut away fence on the near side as all the runners would choose to come down the stand side because they know just how much better that 2 m strip is. I spend quite a bit of time at the track and see how they water and see where the water lands its obvious what the outcome will be if there is any sort of westerly wind which is most of the time. If you walk the track especially from the bushed into the dip you can feel the difference in your shoes. The grass composition is slightly different and that is because of the different watering. They take enormous trouble with the grass using heritage mixes to try to replicate the natural grassland of the heath. The problem is as is normally the case with watering. If they did not water the track would be fairer. It would have been mighty fast last weekend too. Anyone can take a look at the track its worth spending time. But Green Man is right Grecia Magna was simply better than the rest on the day over the trip. Yes he had a very smooth passage but that is his good fortune and I think he won very easily and looked as if he would come on a lot for the run which you wouldn't say for many of them. I think Ten Sovs didn't stay and should go back to what he is bred for, sprinting. I didn't much like his walk in the parade ring but as an individual he looked a very well balanced strong sort. They need to take a bit of time with him, I think the 3yo 6 furlong at Ascot is right up his street. Reply

Reference Point»Tue May 07, 2019 11:36 am
Thanks for that insight TOTH and I will do as you suggest and have a look. I suppose I was quite taken by the 2nd horse in the paddock and although he 66/1 I think too much was made of his position. I agree there is a bias but I think most of them in the race didn't seem to perform for one reason or another or just didn't stay which I think accentuated the bias too much. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Wed May 08, 2019 7:31 am
No problem RP but everyone should always take into consideration the physical attributes of the track. It is a stiff test of stamina, I was amazed that John Ox thought it to be an easy track in his interview before the 1000 gns. A trainer with such experience. A short runner never wins a top class race over a mile at Newmarket no matter how classy they are. It just does not happen. There is another factor that sometimes comes into play when a horse that has never run at Newmarket gets out into the wide open spaces they can often look about them rather than concentrate on the race and look much worse than they probably are. I don't know what they can do about the track bias apart from never watering. A few years ago I actually got sight of the going data produced by the instrument they use (Can't remember its name) and the stands side data in the last 3 furlongs was a good bit quicker than the centre. It tends to get a bit quicker nearer the far rail but not nearly so much. The correlation with the odds is interesting but too much influenced by the jockeys who will ease a more fancied runner if it clearly is not going to get into the places. For example if rider makes a bad tactical decision to ride off the pace or follow the wrong horse he will be too far out of his ground to have any chance and will be eased. When I go through a race I do a correlation with odds, place and draw and odds is ALWAYS the worst indicator. On reflection I didn't think they were a particularly nice bunch of horses. Reply