IRISH BLOODSTOCK FORUMS :: View topic - TOO DARN HOT

Mill Reef»Mon Sep 03, 2018 20:36 pm
Yes he does tick all the boxes - his dam is the dual Gr 1 winner DAR RE MI. Has anyone seen him? I wonder what his looks and conformation are like. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:02 am
I think you have to look at the race as an indicator of Derby winning potential and with very few exceptions, most notably last years winner Masar, it is a race that has not consistently been a good indicator. I am not sure that you can put Dubawi in the ready made Derby winning sire category either. That said there is nothing obvious in the pedigree that would put you off making the prediction. I suppose he will now go for one of the major trials either the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy over 7f or a mile respectively although I might suggest that the mile race on Arc day at Longchamp would be better timing. It would also give him a better break with a bit of good weather before next season. I will wait until he has run in a 'proper' trial. I have not done the analysis yet but plan to have a look later today this may throw up some reason not to be convinced. Reply

Megabucks»Thu Sep 06, 2018 20:59 pm
TOTH I just cant agree with two points you make. First, I expect DUBAWI has every chance of siring 12fur Gr 1 winners and second, TOO DARN HOT did - imo - everything one could hope for in winning the Solario - what more could he have done to convince you he is a very good horse? Until he gets beaten by a moderate horse I rate him as a very likely winner of next years Epsom Derby - in fact he is the top of my list right now! Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:33 am
Well that certainly told me eh Megabucks. Look I think he won the race well enough, he was impressive I just think that it is or has not been a race that has been synonymous with Derby winners. That's not to say it may not become a major trial or that TDH may not go on and win a Dewhurst or RP Trophy which are more reliable races for the Derby. I was impressed by the performance too. As for Dubawi he has got a few G1 winners over 12 furlongs but the Derby is early in the year and for 3yos. He has only sired 3 such winners out of his huge number of stakes winners, so its not really his thing IMO. Of course there is plenty of stamina on the dam side so who knows. I have not ruled TDH out by any means and he is in my top few but you have to wonder if the better horses have been held back a bit by the very fast ground through the summer and you may start seeing a whole lot coming out in the next few weeks. Reply

Megabucks»Fri Sep 07, 2018 16:43 pm
Ha Top - just keeping an eye on you! The subject of DUBAWI'S chances of siring 12 furlong Gr 1 winners is nevertheless an interesting topic. I suppose the type of mares he is covering these days is the key. I am guessing that he most likely coveres 8fur+ mares these days - mares that are by top Gr 1 winners themselves and so I predict he will get those 12f Gr 1 winners any day soon! Reply

Green Man»Fri Sep 07, 2018 20:07 pm
DUBAWI sired a Listed Winner over 14f in France today! Reply

Irish Paddy»Fri Sep 07, 2018 20:19 pm
Yes G.M. but must be pointed out that today winning filly is out of a mare that won the French St.Leger Gr 1 which is run over 3100.m. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:50 am
Its also if I may say Paddy a long long way from a 12 furlong G1 the first Saturday in June to a listed 1 mile 6 furlong listed event in soft conditions at ML. Reply

Dargent»Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:05 am
My 2 pence worth is stats don't lie and if I'm ever looking at a race group 2 or better over 11/12F I always put a line through anything by Dubawi. Reply

Valerie»Sun Sep 09, 2018 20:57 pm
You may be right Dargent but I wouldn't rule him out - time will tell ! Reply

Megabucks»Sat Sep 15, 2018 21:26 pm
DA REE MEE was second in today's Doncaster St Leger 16fur and she is by DUBAWI ! Reply

Dargent»Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:41 am
Yes and she is out of a mare which stayed and won group 1 over 12f her dam was by a horse who's best offspring were over 12f as was her granddam's sire and she was beaten by a horse who's dam was best over 10f. So I would suggest the St Ledger as a example shows the difference between Dubawi and Galileo. She was also 7/4 fav so from a stat point of view she upheld the present norm, but as you said that could change as he covers more mares who stayed 8f+ Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:41 am
I don't think it will change things very much. The filly did not win and the stats for Dubawi progeny at G1 level over 10 furlongs remain as they were, A LOW % PLAY. Its not rocket science really! Also you have to put the race (St Leger) into the context of a top G1 staying race and looking at the field of generally well exposed runners who have pretty much confirmed that they are a bit short of the very top class you have to say that the filly by finishing second also came up a bit short. You can't argue that she is very tough and brave, I thought she would finish nearer last to first when they turned in but she stuck at it. But its an awful race unworthy of G1 status and completely insignificant to breeders except maybe putting a line through the winner as a stallion of any real note. Kew Gardens is obviously a bit better than his bare form suggests and he has probably suffered by being run when he was not quite right, (but that's the way they choose to do things at Ballydoyle these days). But he would hardly attract a lot of support in a really good 12 furlong G1 race. When you look at the progeny of Dubawi at the very highest level the bulk of his 3 year olds win between a mile and 10 furlongs, a few at up to a mile but not many here at over 10 furlongs. The data set is quite big so its not really a case of him only just starting out and breeders getting to know his capabilities. He may well get better mares these days but that is no guarantee to change his stamina profile. He is likely to get better runners at 8 to 10 furlongs. Reply

Irish Paddy»Sun Sep 16, 2018 18:55 pm
Not any more ! Reply

barney»Sun Sep 16, 2018 20:37 pm
Hee Hee toth - would you like some Darley Sauce to put on those words you have to eat ?!!!!! Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Tue Sep 18, 2018 16:23 pm
I am not too sure about the Darley Sauce, maybe its a bit of Barney Sauce. Now you made me look at all the Dubawi G1 winners and out of 39 there are in fact 3 who won at 3yo over 12 furlongs. But its amazing what you find out. First its quite astonishing that so many Dubawis actually race well into their 4th and 5th season even a few in their 6th. Another quite surprising thing I noticed was that out of the seven 12 furlong winners (all ages), 3 had won the Prix Vermaille. What is obvious is that he does better at distances between 7 and 10 furlongs. Also a lot of his older winners are winning G1 races in places like Hong Kong and Singapore or even South Africa so they were likely sold here because at the end of their 3yo career they were either already gelded or not good enough to get a place at stud. Reply