IRISH BLOODSTOCK FORUMS :: View topic - Question for upcoming sales

amadán»Fri Nov 10, 2017 16:54 pm
I am planning to buy an inexpensive mare (10k) at the Breeding Stock sales end of Nov/early Dec – Goffs IRE, Tattersalls GN, Arqana FR. Yesterday I visited the boarding farm to hear the costs of my folly. My budget means I can’t go splashing cash as I need to pay mare keep and a stallion fee in the spring. My hobby is pedigree research. At the moment my fast PC is running a program I wrote. It is test-mating 778 low-end mares from those sales catalogues with 423 stallions standing in IRE, GB, FR. The program is analysing 778 mares themselves and also 778 mares x 423 stallions = 329,094 test-matings (329,872 total). This will take a few days running 24/7. My plan is to get a short list of 50/100 test-mating foals. Next will be more work on those 50/100. If you are interested tell me which sales and I will try to suggest yearlings to view. If the sale has cheap day(s) (low average prices) you can limit me to those. I do the prep work on my old slower PC so have a day or two free. Reply

Nearco»Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:40 am
Thanks for offering Adaman. I don't know yet if I'm going to Goffs or to Newmarket because I need to schedule the trip along my work commitments. One thing that is imperative for me is the 1st dam. She must have been a good runner. If she was not, she must have shown to be a good producer. In other words, I prefer a foal out of a Listed winner with no pedigree to the first produce out of an unraced sister of Treve! I know that many here will disagree... Reply

Gone West»Fri Nov 10, 2017 18:48 pm
Nearco - first horse to some to my mind is FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND. Reply

Dargent»Fri Nov 10, 2017 19:08 pm
Raven's Pass, Tamayuz, Champs Elysees, Mount Nelson, Sir Percy. Reply

Sheikh»Fri Nov 10, 2017 19:34 pm
Clodovil, Footsteps, Rock of, Tamayuz, Dylan. Mount Nelson, Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:49 am
All suggestions so far OK I would add Authorized and another that may just fall into your budget New Approach. Rock of Gibraltar could be tricky but is very capable of producing a nice horse. I question your selection of a big foal. I would prefer a neat not over big foal. Big overblown foals can be trouble and smart breeders tend to pull them out of the sales. Also you need a mare who is still youngish as she is likely to produce her best within 5 or 6 foals and ideally she needs to be a 2yo winner or have produced a 2yo winner. Reply

Reference Point»Sun Nov 12, 2017 17:24 pm
£30k seems a good budget to me for a foal. I don't see why you have to go for unfashionable stallions. Just look for well bred ones and keep bidding until you get one of them. There are plenty of Dutch Art, Bated Breath, Kyllachy, Lope De Vega even Oasis Dream foals and I guarantee there will be a nice one of them go for £30k or less. Reply

Valerie»Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:21 am
30k is a big spend in my book and I would go for two at 15k or whatever but two foals for the 30k. I would take a wee gamble on the likes of DAWN APPROACH. Reply

Nearco»Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:30 am
The names you have thrown in are the ones that I have also thougt about with a few comments: Footstepsinthesand foals with some physique and pedigree can be quite expensive (as I have witnessed over the time). Other sires that may be affordable are Excelebration, the French stallions such as Motivator and the ones prematurely relegated to NH ranks such as Champs Elysees and Pour Moi. I disagree that 30k£ is a good budget. It used to be until few years ago, but if you are looking for a foal with some scope by a dam with some black type I guarantee that it's hard to get them. It can be enough for fillies but usually not for colts, that's why I want to "forgive" the stallion. Your comment on Dawn Approach is interesting. I would not give up on him for sure...... Reply

Reference Point»Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:18 pm
You may disagree with me but you're wrong. There were Pivotals, Australia's, Zoffany's, etc all in your price range last year. The foal sale is very different to a yearling sale because it is largely about pin hooking and unproven mares. Few people sell the proven (relatively speaking) stock at the foal sales preferring to keep them for the yearling sales (the exceptions prove the rule) . If you are looking to race it then you need someone to assess its conformation which is more important than if its related to 1 fancy winner. For £30k I would be looking for an Acclamation or the like. If someone is sending their proven mares (by that I mean those that the market can see will get good horses) to 'unfashionable' stallions and then not wanting to keep them it doesn't add up. Reply

Villicious»Mon Nov 13, 2017 13:36 pm
I'm enjoying this thread! I sell as foals RP win lose or draw. I think that there are more of us out there than you think. I would expect though to turn up with a nice colt and get some reward even if it is by a commercial no no. Nice horses are everyone's - well good peoples anyway - priority. Fashion just helps you get rid of the lesser lights or sell to the stratosphere so I think a non commercial sire is the way ahead. Sir Percy, Champs Elysees are good and you need to keep away from speed sires as you don't want a sprinter and you want good value. Duke of Marmalade would have been great but Dylan Thomas is horrid by anyone's measure. Reply

Reference Point»Mon Nov 13, 2017 14:19 pm
Just reread my post and it did sound a little pompous didn't it...sorry. What I was trying to ineloquently say was that with a £30k budget, I would be looking at all the foals and bidding for the ones I like and not restricting myself to any particular group of stallions. I may well get outbid on many of them but I would expect to get a nice one (and one I liked)for £30k. Reply

TOPOFTHEHILL»Mon Nov 13, 2017 14:59 pm
Nearco, I would council against even considering an unproven sire like Dawn Approach, its a risk not worth taking. His dam line is devoid of any racing ability until you get back to the 4th dam and that is no formula for success as a sire. I think a 30K budget is OK, but it is a lot easier with 100K you will have to be very selective. In many ways the foal sales are more difficult than the yearling sales but every year there is value lurking. In many respects the damline is going to be more important than the sire. In research I have done it appears to be very significant that the dams of smart horses have either won at 2yo or have produced good 2yo winners. It is well worth reprising the 2yo season to identify the better prospects for next year. If one or two of those is by a stallion that is out of favour then have a really good look at that stallions foals. Reply

Nearco»Mon Nov 13, 2017 15:23 pm
Thanks everyone for the comments. I read them all carefully because there is always a lot to learn. I think that buying foals to race contains an extra element of risk, that is how the foal will eventually develop from a physical standpoint. In the past I have bought nice looking foals that were not so good looking once in training, but I have also taken the risk buying scruffy so-so looking foals that turned out to be very nice at 2. My dream is to own horses capable or winning some big handicap; to do that one needs to either spend a lot, or (i) accept to take more risks and (ii) be extra-patient when the horse goes into training, so buying foals fits into this plan. By the way, my English is terrible, I hope to have conveyed the message nonethelss, if not I apologize :) Reply

Valerie»Mon Nov 13, 2017 18:15 pm
I hope you dont mind me asking you this Nearco but can I ask what country you will race the foal you purchase? Reply

Nearco»Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:48 am
I have been racing for nore than 20 years in my country Italy, but now it makes no sense to run here for a number of reasons so I'm racing in Ireland. I have a 3yo, 2yo and a yearling at the Curragh Reply