BREEDING FORUM

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2017 7:53 am**

Churchill 2014 c Galileo ex Meow x Storm Cat.
Following a very worthy and really rather easy victory in the 2000 Guineas, even taking into account the fact that he had very much the run of the race, speculation about Churchills participation in the Derby has resulted in him being installed as favourite.
For pedigree enthusiasts the very notion of him getting a mile and a half is fanciful. Without looking at the very speedy influences in his 4th quartile we should simply look at the available data and note that out of mares by Storm Cat there have been 198 stakes winners. Look a little further and you will see that there has only been 1 winner at 3yo over the Derby trip and that was in Japan which is not a country with fully open competition.
That is a success rate of about 0.5%. Not a great deal of encouragement to take the odds on offer for Epsom is it?
Furthermore we now need to look into that 4th quartile in Churchills pedigree to see what if any stamina influences there may be which will get him across the downs and to the line early next month.
Meows dam Airwave was a very speedy filly who raced and won 6 times over 5 and 6 furlongs, by Air Express a smart miler who had a tragically short stud career.
Airwave’s dam Kangra Valley was a modest performer by speed influence Indian Ridge ex Thorner Lane ( a non thoroughbred) by purist sprinter Tina’s Pet.
Churchills 6th dam, Penny Pincher is by sprint sire Constable and in fact closely inbred to another precocious speed influence Panorama, who is also found in the pedigree of Indian Ridge.
It’s hard enough to find a plausible source of stamina in the bottom half of Churchill’s pedigree.
Harder still to understand why the connections are even contemplating sending him to Epsom,