BREEDING FORUM

Posted: **Wed Dec 02, 2015 17:56 pm**

I hope I haven't posted this before.

How do runner ratings compare with their dam ratings?

The rating used is the career rating (3yo+) and is the top of (Timeform, Turform, Racing Post, Official)
e.g. (Timeform 90, Turform 84, Racing Post 93, Official rating 91) top is 93.

1) There is a very, very strong relationship between filly runner ratings and their dam's rating.
2) There is a strong relationship between colt runner ratings and their dam's rating.
3) The relationship between colt runner ratings and their sire ratings are strong, just not as strong.
(Not shown are Colt's, Gelding's, Fillies Sire ratings as sire ratings vary only from ~ 120 to 125. If anyone wants I will post them.)

Rating___Rating__Number__Colt's_Gelding's_Filly's
Band___Average___Rated___Dam___Dam___Dam

130+______130____697___106.1___0.0___114.0
125-129___127_____677__104.9___86.0___100.1
120-124___122___1,455___97.7___89.1___100.4
115-119___117___3,270___92.8___89.6___98.4
110-114___112___4,890___92.8___88.8___96.0
105-109___107___7,130___93.6___89.2___92.5
100-104___102___8,523___92.5___87.1___92.7
95-99______97___8,785___91.1___84.6___91.0
90-94______92___8,987___91.1___84.3___89.5
85-89______87___9,731___90.9___82.7___88.6
80-84______82__10,753___90.0___82.9___86.5
75-79______77__11,769___87.6___81.3___85.4
70-74______72__11,586___86.3___79.8___83.5
65-69______67__10,967___87.4___78.4___81.0
60-64______62___9,788___83.9___75.6___80.1
55-59______57___8,551___85.1___75.5___77.0
50-54______52___6,960___81.0___72.7___75.3
45-49______47___5,428___87.0___72.6___73.9
40-44______42___3,275___80.6___72.6___72.6
35-39______37___2,044___92.3___73.4___74.3
30-34______32___1,333___89.0___64.9___72.4
25-29______27_____822___74.2___73.8___73.6
20-24______22_____543___84.3___76.3___77.2
15-19______17_____399___87.9___76.7___74.1
10-14______12_____316___96.3___74.9___77.1
05-09_______7_____214___71.5___73.8___78.6
01-04_______2_____330___64.3___74.2___66.6
00__not rated >_201,060____0.0____0.0____0.0

Total horses___340,283___88.2___76.3___84.2

Numbers used:
33,564 colts; 50,009 geldings; 55,650 fillies = 139,223

Previously I did a study to see if black type dams produced black type offspring, or were more likely to produce them.
There was very little relationship. The lesson imo is go by the ratings of dams, not their black type. Every rating point counts.

How to read the numbers above:
Line 3 ....... 120-124___122___1,455___97.7___89.1___100.4
To get a 120 to 124 rated colt the dams of those are rated 97.7 average.
To get a 120 to 124 rated gelding the dams of those are rated 89.1 average.
To get a 120 to 124 rated filly the dams of those are rated 100.4 average.
Not shown are the sire averages to produce these on Line 3: colt's sire 128.2; gelding's sire 124.0; filly's sire 128.7.

What is very striking (even amazing) is from the 40-44 filly runner ratings up to the 130+ runner ratings their dam rating climbs with every filly runner rating band (with two very small exceptions). The sample from 40-44 to 130+ (19 ratings bands) is 52,380 racing/running fillies and their dams.

Much effort is spent by racecourses to ensure the field rating average is kept up to retain a Group classification.
All group races of equal standing are not equal, and imo an unreliable guide to winner quality.
Recently I came across an Italian Oaks winner rated 106.
I think there is a mushrooming of new weak Group 3 races.

I hate studies that use small samples and only quotes percentages. I like to see the raw numbers.
This study used more that 139,000 rated runners.
If I could not find a sire or dam rating I excluded the horse.
The ratings are from the 1970s to date.

My conclusion:
Pay money for a highly rated dam (or as high as you can afford).
Stallion fees return less imo that money invested in the mare.
Federico Tesio suggested buying a dam who had won herself, and had already produced a winner.

Any questions or comments welcomed.