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Torquil



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Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:12 am

This will no doubt set the cat amongst the pigeons, but it gives food for thought. Unfortunately the comparison tables do not come out in this post, but you can go to http://www.breedingracing.com/feature-files/ to see the comparisons, if you wish.

Trio Of Gr1 Winners Debunks Prevailing Anti Danehill Double X Sentiment
Thursday, 7th November 2013, Breeding & Racing newsletter

Pedigree analyst and statistician Renée Geelen discovers that, despite the popularly held view that Danehill over Danehill is a pedigree mistake, there might be more positives to the cross than originally thought.

One Thousand Guineas star Guelph is the current pin up girl for inbreeding to Danehill - being by Danehill's son Exceed and Excel from a daughter of a Danehill mare - but is she an exception or she is the start of a trend that breeders should be pursuing? Much of the talk about Danehill lately has been the need to find an outcross sire to him that will be the next big thing. History tells us that sirelines eventually fade and another will rise to take its place. Danehill's last southern hemisphere crop was born in 2003/04, and his big name sire sons are now coming into the latter half of their stud careers, which gives context to this discussion.
But when a horse is so influential, should we be trying to avoid him?
If he is the best, surely the goal should be to get more of the best? Many breeders are already thinking along these lines, and the numbers are starting to become significant. Danehill has now had just over 1,000 named foals inbred to him, and 16 stakes winners, highlighted by 3 Gr1 winners. They are Guelph, Astaire (who won the Gr1 Middle Park Stakes in England during October) and NZ's Southern Lord (Gr1 Levin Classic). The percentage of stakes-winners to named foals is quite low (slightly less than the population average), but what really stands out to me in perusing the list of stakes winners bred this way is how many of them are young horses that are still improving. And therefore, it is a natural assumption to expect that the statistics will improve with time.

Danehill X Danehill Stakes Performers (comparison table will not appear here).


This table shows that southern hemisphere breeders have embraced this style of breeding more readily than the Northern Hemisphere.


Back in 2010, when Guelph was born, Byron Rogers of Performance Genetics LLC told breednet.com.au: "Danehill was as sound as they come and his horses have a lot of qualities that trainers like in horses (they sleep, eat and run fast!) which makes him a fantastic stallion to inbreed to. There are not a lot of holes in Danehill if you are looking to him as a subject to inbreed to in the hope of increasing your chances." And that pretty well sums up why people love Danehill and why breeders have been taking the punt on inbreeding to him.

Back to Guelph, and B&R asked Darley’s nominations manager Alastair Pulford about the process of mating Gr1 AJC Sires' Produce winner Camarilla that season. Pulford reveals: "Even though Camarilla was out of a Danehill mare, we were happy to take the risk and double up on Danehill for a range of reasons. Firstly, Elusive Quality had crossed so well with Danehill, and secondly Camarilla is such a fantastic type and she was very well suited physically to Exceed and Excel. It worked as Guelph is a similarly wonderful type to her mother.” Pulford also acknowledges, “The sex-balancing of the Danehill cross was also a factor, as many line-breeding analysts would tell you that it works best that way. So all up, we felt it was a risk worth taking, given all the other factors. Added to that, we believe that Exceed and Excel works best when used with mares that have racing class themselves - he seems to bring out the best in the mare. For example, Gr1 VRC Sires' Produce Stakes winner Preserve was a failed broodmare until she went to Exceed and Excel, and that mating produced Safeguard."

In terms of whether Guelph will set a trend towards more inbreeding to Danehill, Pulford said "Yes, I think Guelph will give people confidence to inbreed to Danehill, rather than avoid it. We will certainly pursue it again, provided the physical types match up well." Pulford mentions that using a double of Danehill in a sex-balanced fashion is one of the ways to reduce risk around the mating, but this may prove difficult for breeders with so many sons and grandsons of Danehill at stud, especially when the Australian Stud Book lists only 290 broodmare daughters for Danehill in 2013. The number of foals carrying a male line of Danehill appears to far outnumber those carrying a female line. One way to work in this balance, if you believe in that theory, is to look at sires that are out of Danehill mares for your daughter of a son, grandson or great-grandson of Danehill. Currently, there are 18 sires at stud in Australia that are out of daughters of Danehill (3% of all sires in 2013) that fit this criteria:

2013 Australian Stallions Out Of Danehill Mares (comparison table missing)

There are another two in NZ; Perfectly Ready and Melbourne Cup winner Shocking, whose oldest crop are yearlings this season. Communications Manager at Rich Hill Stud, Mike Rennie, feels strongly about the Danehill cross, having done a lot of background work when Shocking retired to their farm, and observes, "The fact that Danehill is himself inbred to a wonderful broodmare in Natalma is the reason I think that inbreeding to Danehill will be successful. It was Natalma's presence that started the research on this in terms of our sire Shocking. Shocking brings in a further strain of Natalma through Street Cry's sire Machiavellian whose dam is a granddaughter of Natalma. I think the key to Danehill working as a close up duplication is largely Natalma. She is proven to work very well when line-bred to in multiples and with Danehill being a direct descendant whilst his sire Northern Dancer also being a direct descendant of hers it makes it all the more powerful.
“Personally,” notes Rennie, “I also find it comforting to find her through a male and female. Danehill has a host of highly regarded duplications further back such as Teddy, Canterbury Pilgrim, Lady Josephine and Selene which are huge positives but I feel people probably know and respect that about Danehill so I prefer to keep things a bit more transparent by concentrating on the more recent family, most notably Natalma, which in effect tells the story further back anyway.” Preferring to err on the side of caution, Rennie says, “I like to investigate the facts and figures around a cross before recommending it to clients. I think it is important to make an observation into real data, which gives any recommendation more weight. What I discovered in relation to Shocking was that Street Cry's best cross has been with Danehill mares, with 4 stakes-winners from only 30 named foals. As part of this investigation, the idea of inbreeding to Danehill became more apparent as a strategy for Shocking. The cross of Shocking with the many broodmares who are by sons and grandsons of Danehill will bring more Natalma, and you can't have too much of a good thing!”
Echoing the sentiments of other breeders and pedigree sleuths, Reniie enthuses: “And Danehill is on a whole other planet in terms of being a 'good thing'. His stock are functional, tough, sound and fast; pretty much everything a breeder wants in their foals. And with many examples of inbreeding to him starting to emerge, I think the time has come for people to embrace this as a trend."
It’s a case of watch this space...
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