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Irish Paddy



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Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 15:30 pm

John Osborne discusses the 'art' of statistics: A traffic expert said once that the best way to improve road safety would be to replace the steering wheel airbag with a sharp metal spike pointing at the driver. If the driver had to brake sharply, then he or she would be impaled on the spike and the obvious danger would alter driver behaviour dramatically. He did not mention the beneficial reduction in the number of erratic drivers (through gruesome means).




His point was that the elimination of danger can have the opposite effect and make for poor decision making and more catastrophe. Before breakfast I read John Lynam’s analysis of Fairyhouse and Rob Whiteley’s analysis of Keeneland September. Both people apply a deep analysis to the headline sales figures and compare them to the profitability of the individual and collective transactions. These result in sharp shocks too. While Fairyhouse does not pretend to reflect the overall European market, the Keeneland Sale could be called THE American market. In both instances the figures remain daunting for anybody producing racehorses. The obvious competition for the chosen lots is the optimistic sign, the chronic losses incurred by the other horses leaves the entire marketplace wounded.




Call the analysis dismal and move on. Everybody now knows the dangers, everybody has incurred losses, some more than others. We saw a high clearance rate in Fairyhouse which is one positive which is better than it looks. The client taking the horse home from the sale is the one taking the dream to the next level. The RP Yearling Bonus Scheme has tried to help the emerging markets in a proactive way and this sale partly reflects the benefit of that application of resources. The wider our client base the better. There were many clients active and the horses have found a wide variety of homes.




The strongest driver of demand at yearling sales is the buying pattern of the Maktoum family and their thus far cautious approach may be causing some anxiety. No two years have been the same in that regard which emphasises how fickle a marketplace it is. We have all our yearlings in Goffs next week where we are happy to accept bids in dirham's.
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